Equatorial Guinea and Zambia square off on Thursday evening with both nations locked on three points after their opening two fixtures in Group B.
With only the winners advancing through to the final round of World Cup qualifying, both nations can ill-afford a defeat in Malabo.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having been drawn in a group with Tunisia, Equatorial Guinea and Zambia were aware that it was going to be a tough ask to progress into the final 10.
With defeats having already been suffered against the group favourites and Tunisia playing host to minnows Mauritania this week, they may already be at a point where another setback will leave qualification out of their reach.
If either side can claim to have any momentum, it is Equatorial Guinea after they beat Mauritania courtesy of a second-half penalty last month.
When taking defeats to Tunisia in different competitions out of the equation, National Thunder have now recorded four successive victories.
While the two most recent victories have come with Juan Micha in charge, it is worth noting that two of Equatorial Guinea's last four wins have been a result of last-minute goals.
Zambia gave a positive account of themselves against Tunisia last time out, the Copper Bullets remaining competitive until shipping a 92nd-minute penalty.
Although Beston Chambeshi will acknowledge that the nation require results over performances, that display should at least provide them with confidence ahead of this fixture.
Patson Daka and Fashion Sakala have both endured frustrating starts to the season after moving to Leicester City and Rangers respectively.
Nevertheless, the attacking pair will relish the opportunity to find some form with their country, particularly with the stakes having been raised considerably.
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Team News
Emilio Nsue is expected to return to the Equatorial Guinea starting lineup, potentially taking the place of Miguel Angel Maye at right-back.
Rui Gomes misses out through injury, so young Sevilla defender Nestor Senra could be given an opportunity in the centre of defence.
Daka and Sakaka will almost certainly be included in the Zambia XI, with Prince Mumba and Edward Chilufya potentially dropping out.
Brighton & Hove Albion's Enock Mwepu should also return to the midfield to partner Dickson Chapa.
Equatorial Guinea possible starting lineup:
Owono; Nsue, Senra, Anieboh, Ndong; Bikoro, Buyla, Ganet; Salvador, Siafa, Miranda
Zambia possible starting lineup:
Chibwe; Chepeshi, Sakala, Chanda, Chiluya; Chapa, Mwepu; Daka, F. Sakala, L. Musonda; Mwila
We say: Equatorial Guinea 1-1 Zambia
With both nations finding themselves in a vulnerable position, we expect a tense affair in Malabo. However, that is unlikely to benefit either nation, and we would not be surprised to see a low-scoring draw play out on Thursday night.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Zambia had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Zambia win was 0-1 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Equatorial Guinea would win this match.
