Zambia will try to keep their slim semi-final hopes alive at the COSAFA Cup when they battle Botswana at Isaac Wolfson Stadium in South Africa.
The reigning champions are bottom of Group A, losing both of their matches thus far, while Botswana bounced back nicely from their opening loss to beat Lesotho 4-0 on Saturday.
Match preview
© Reuters
With only two games remaining in the group stage, Zambian manager Milutin Sredojevic will have to pull out all the stops if his side are to repeat as champions of this competition.
Their opening two fixtures can be best described as a tale of two halves, with Chipolopolo starting strong both times but unable to maintain that momentum into the second half.
Against Lesotho, they scored less than half an hour into the match but then conceded twice in the final twenty minutes, and they may not have psychologically recovered from that blow when they lost their next game to a second-half strike versus Eswatini.
This team have been hot and cold in 2021, going winless in their first five games but then going unbeaten in three of their last four matches heading into this competition.
Defensively they will need to be a lot better if they are to win on Tuesday as they have conceded a goal in six of their last eight fixtures, including three in their two group matches.
This weekend, Botswana tightened up their defensive game with an impressive victory over Lesotho, keeping a clean sheet for the first time in four matches as they got themselves right back in the thick of the race for a top-two spot in their group.
Going up against Zambia will be a tough psychological challenge for this team, having only beaten them once in their last 11 match ups, although the last time they faced them, they came away with a 1-0 victory at the 2020 African Cup of Nations.
After losing 1-0 to Zambia in the 2019 COSAFA Cup final, the Zebras are hoping to repay the favour and knock them out of this competition this time around.
Assistant coach Letang Kgenwenyane got his tactics spot on over the weekend, and he will need to do the same against a team that are desperate for three points.
Scoring four goals is probably as much as their manager could ask for from his side, who went goalless in nine of their last 12 competitive matches and have only scored multiple goals on three occasions in over two years.
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Team News
Zambia striker Justin Shonga has the lone goal for his country in this competition, and they will be looking for more from him in a critical match, along with Gramphani Lungu, who has yet to find the back of the net for his country this year.
Holding midfielder Benson Sakala will hope to spark his side, while defender Kabaso Chongo will miss this game after receiving yellow cards in back-to-back fixtures.
The defence of Zambia was extremely undisciplined on Saturday, as Zachariah Chilongoshi and Dominic Chanda received cautions as well.
Botswana will hope that striker Tumisang Orebonye can duplicate his performance from their last match, as he scored a hat-trick in what was their second-biggest victory ever.
Defender Moshe Gaolaolwe scored the only goal the last time this team met Zambia in the 2020, and he is their most experienced out field player with over 50 caps.
The only other striker on this team, Thatayaone Kgamanyane, played in behind Orebonye over the weekend, and that new formation seemed to work well as he notched the fourth goal of the game with less than 20 minutes to play.
Zambia possible starting lineup:
Mweene; Chepeshi, Chama, Shamujompa, Kabwe; Bulaya, S. Phiri, Sakala, M. Phiri; Shonga, Lungu
Botswana possible starting lineup:
Morake; Leinanyane, Kebue, Gaolaolwe, Thulare; Mpolokang, Boy; Elias, Kgamanyane, Gaogangwe; Orebonye
We say: Zambia 1-0 Botswana
The Zambians seem to bring out their best when they have their backs against the wall, and it is do-or-die time for this team who have not been at their best, but they know there is still time.
As confident as Botswana will be following their performance over the weekend, they have not strung together consecutive victories since 2018, and they struggle against most teams to create a lot of scoring chances.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 45.23%. A win for Botswana had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Botswana win was 1-2 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Zambia in this match.
