First place is within reach for Wrexham, heading into their National League fixture this weekend, as they take on Maidenhead United at the Racecourse Ground in North Wales.
The Welsh side are currently in a playoff position, sitting sixth in the table, only three points behind the leaders Stockport County, while The Magpies are 20th and nine points above the relegation zone for the time being.
Match preview
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A solid defensive performance early on, along with the support of around 8,000 fans, helped the Red Dragons extend their unbeaten run at home to four matches in all competitions, outscoring their opponents 12-1 over that time.
Phil Parkinson was delighted with his side's professionalism on Tuesday as they limited the time and space of Grimsby Town, collecting their sixth clean sheet of the domestic campaign in a 2-0 win.
Since the club was purchased by Hollywood stars Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney through RR McReynolds Company LLC, the goal has been to move this team through the ranks of English Football, and they have put themselves in a good position to earn a promotion at the end of this season.
Provided nothing unforeseen occurs, such as an expulsion against them, the Red Dragons have been a difficult side to face, as they are incredibly compact and committed to team play and have not dropped any points in the league when all 11 men are on the field for 90 minutes since a 0-0 draw against Wealdstone on November 20.
In attack, Wrexham can be quite potent, scoring the third-most goals in the National League after 24 games (41), and that quality has enabled them to reverse some early deficits in certain fixtures this season, including last weekend when they conceded a 14th-minute goal by Tom Knowles but scored twice in the final half-hour to defeat Yeovil Town 2-1, thanks to an own goal from Morgan Williams.
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Despite keeping them quiet for the opening 45 minutes, the second half was the undoing again for The Magpies, who conceded three times to the league leaders Stockport on Tuesday, losing 3-0 as they are now winless in 10 successive road games.
That defeat means that it is back to the drawing board for manager Alan Devonshire, who saw his players put together a great effort last Saturday, upsetting FC Halifax Town 1-0, but his side failed to capitalise on their chances versus The Hatters.
Maidenhead have lacked imagination and creativity when playing on the road, failing to score in six of their previous eight domestic encounters as the visitors and possessing the fourth-fewest goals in the league this season.
Scoring has not come easy for them, but they did show some quality in their previous encounter versus Wrexham, winning 3-2, their highest tally in a league match so far in this campaign.
Since dropping four straight domestic affairs from October to November of last year, they have recovered well when losing, and have not dropped consecutive games since that streak, however, they have not put together a winning run of more than one game either.
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Team News
Ollie Palmer had a dream debut for the Red Dragons as the former Wimbledon striker, who dropped down two divisions when he signed a three-and-a-half-year deal with the club, scored the winner on Tuesday as he hopes to provide them with an extra attacking option to complement their leading goalscorer, Paul Mullin.
A few players reached some impressive milestones this week, including Rob Lainton, who picked up his 125th cap for the club, Jordan Ponticelli made his 50th career Wrexham appearance, James Jones played for the 225th time in the National League and Liam McAlinden notched his first assist for the Red Dragons.
There were only a few changes made to their starting 11 in their previous encounter, with Palmer taking the place of Jordan Ponticelli, Liam McAlinden was inserted into the lineup instead of Bryce Hosannah and Max Cleworth replaced Harry Lennon.
Josh Kelly is the top attacking threat for Maidenhead, as the Northern Irishman has nine goals on the season, putting him in a tie for seventh in the league alongside Jordan Slew, Max Kretzschmar, Andrew Dallas and Corie Andrews.
Kelly scored the winner in their previous meeting versus Wrexham, with Kane Ferdinand and Jay Mingi also finding the back of the net.
One change was made to their starting 11 on Tuesday as Shaun Donnellan replaced Ryan Upward, while goalkeeper Daniel Gyollai conceded three goals just a few days after collecting his first clean sheet of the year.
Wrexham possible starting lineup:
Lainton; Hall-Johnson, Hayden, Tozer, Brisley; Davies, Young, Jones; Mullin, Palmer, Thomas
Maidenhead United possible starting lineup:
Gyollai; Wells, De Havilland, Massey, Sheckleford, Clerima; Donnellan, Smith, Ferdinand; Kelly, Acquah
We say: Wrexham 2-0 Maidenhead United
Wrexham are on a roll at home right now and look very comfortable when it comes to defending, and they will be keen to prove that their defeat to Maidenhead earlier this season will not happen again.
The Magpies rely a little too heavily on Kelly, and we do not expect them to be able to contain the attacking depth of the Welsh side throughout the entire 90 minutes.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 78.33%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Maidenhead United had a probability of 7.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.5%) and 1-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.88%), while for a Maidenhead United win it was 0-1 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
