Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 44.11%. A win for USA had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest USA win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.