Women's Super League | Gameweek 10
Dec 11, 2022 at 4.15pm UK
Trevor Brown Memorial Ground

Aston Villa
1 - 4
Arsenal Women

Hanson (6')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Corsie (26' og.), Miedema (30'), McCabe (62'), Nobbs (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Women's Super League clash between Aston Villa Women and Arsenal Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa Women

All competitions
Last Game: Man Utd Women 5-0 Aston Villa
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in Women's Super League

Arsenal Women

All competitions
Women's Super League
Last Game: Arsenal Women 1-0 Juventus
Wednesday, December 7 at 8pm in Women's Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 74.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 8.91%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.13%) and 0-3 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.88%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 1-0 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal Women would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa WomenDrawArsenal Women
8.91% (0.259 0.26)16.64% (0.328 0.33)74.44% (-0.58800000000001 -0.59)
Both teams to score 42.91% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.24% (-0.62 -0.62)43.76% (0.62 0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.85% (-0.61000000000001 -0.61)66.15% (0.61 0.61)
Aston Villa Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
47.77% (0.183 0.18)52.23% (-0.185 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.84% (0.118 0.12)86.16% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)
Arsenal Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.84% (-0.307 -0.31)10.16% (0.306 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.61% (-0.708 -0.71)33.39% (0.707 0.71)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa Women 8.91%
    Arsenal Women 74.43%
    Draw 16.64%
Aston Villa WomenDrawArsenal Women
1-0 @ 3.45% (0.11 0.11)
2-1 @ 2.56% (0.063 0.06)
2-0 @ 1.12% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 8.91%
1-1 @ 7.88% (0.151 0.15)
0-0 @ 5.31% (0.142 0.14)
2-2 @ 2.93% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 16.64%
0-2 @ 13.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-1 @ 12.13% (0.17 0.17)
0-3 @ 10.57% (-0.14 -0.14)
1-2 @ 9.01% (0.053999999999998 0.05)
1-3 @ 6.87% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-4 @ 6.05% (-0.16 -0.16)
1-4 @ 3.93% (-0.082 -0.08)
0-5 @ 2.77% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-3 @ 2.23% (-0.004 -0)
1-5 @ 1.8% (-0.062 -0.06)
2-4 @ 1.28% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.05% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 74.43%

Head to Head
May 1, 2022 2.15pm
Arsenal Women
7-0
Aston Villa
Miedema (9', 13'), Corsie (52' og.), Mead (61'), Wubben-Moy (66'), Blackstenius (83'), Parris (90' pen.)
Foord (90+1')

Petzelberger (54')
Oct 2, 2021 5.15pm
Aston Villa
0-4
Arsenal Women

Pacheco (57')
Little (51', 90+2'), Iwabuchi (80'), McCabe (83')
May 9, 2021 2.30pm
Arsenal Women
0-0
Aston Villa
Feb 28, 2021 2pm
Aston Villa
0-4
Arsenal Women

Hanssen (85')
Miedema (58'), Nobbs (67'), McCabe (73'), Evans (88')