Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Arsenal Women had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Arsenal Women win was 1-0 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.