Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden Women win with a probability of 60.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Portugal Women had a probability of 16.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.19%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Portugal Women win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden Women would win this match.