Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.64%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.