Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Pontypridd Town AFC had a probability of 28.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Pontypridd Town AFC win was 0-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.