Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 57.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Newtown AFC win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.