Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 49.22%. A win for Bala Town had a probability of 25.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Bala Town win was 0-1 (7.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.