Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 38%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.