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[monks data]
Wales national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Millennium Stadium
Estonia national football team

Wales
0 - 0
Estonia


Morrell (73'), Page (90+6')
FT

Puri (25'), Kreida (79')

Preview: Wales vs. Estonia - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Wales and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

After surviving a huge scare against Belarus at the weekend, Wales will be aiming to make it three wins in a row in World Cup qualifying when they host Estonia on Wednesday.

The Dragons are third in Group E, a point behind second-placed Czech Republic with a game in hand, while Estonia are bottom and without a point from their opening three matches.


Match preview

Wales attacker Gareth Bale celebrates scoring against Belarus on September 5, 2021© Reuters

Sunday's contest with Belarus was described as "must win" by Wales interim boss Rob Page and his side delivered on that, but only thanks to some late Gareth Bale magic.

The Wales skipper had already scored twice from the penalty spot in Kazan when popping up in added time to snatch a 3-2 win for Wales in a game they trailed 2-1 at half time.

That victory on neutral territory and played behind closed doors could turn out to be truly massive given that, in the words of Bale, everything was stacked against the Dragons.

From injury withdrawals and players being forced to self-isolate to others not being granted visas to travel to Russia, Page's men did what they had to and came away with the win.

Either side of exiting Euro 2020 at the last-16 stage, Wales have won two World Cup qualifiers in a row after beginning with a 3-1 loss to the world's top-ranked side Belgium.

That leaves Page's charges in a very strong position, with a victory on home soil on Wednesday enough to take them two points ahead of the Czech Republic with a game in hand.

Estonia coach Thomas Haberli during the match on March 27, 2021© Reuters

Only top spot guarantees a place at Qatar 2022, and it will be an almighty task dislodging Belgium, so second place and a spot in the playoffs will surely be the target.

Estonia's only realistic aim at this point is to avoid finishing below Belarus in the five-team group, having so far suffered defeats to Belgium, Belarus and the Czech Republic.

The Blueshirts have conceded 15 goals across those three matches, though they have scored six of their own so cannot be completely written off this week.

The three goals Wales scored on Sunday was as many as they had netted in their previous seven in all competitions, and Page will be hopeful of adding to his side's goal difference.

Wales World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • L
  • W
  • W

Wales form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Estonia World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • L
  • L
  • L

Estonia form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

Harry Wilson celebrates scoring for Wales in March 2021© Reuters

Aaron Ramsey has been ruled out of Wales's triple-header of September fixtures through injury, but it was announced on Monday morning that Joe Rodon is back in the squad.

Harry Wilson is back from a suspension served against Belarus, but Kieffer Moore is once again ruled out after coming into close contact with a positive coronavirus case.

Rubin Colwill did not make the most of his first start in Moore's absence, so it may well be that Mark Harris - influential from the bench in that late win - is brought in.

Bale scored just his second ever hat-trick for Wales last time out and has been involved in all five of Wales' goals in this qualifying campaign - three goals and two assists.

Page does also have the option of using Bale through the middle, with Wilson on one side and Daniel James on the other.

As for the visitors, Thomas Haberli will revert back to his strongest possible lineup on the back of Sunday's friendly with Northern Ireland, which ended in a 1-0 loss.

Mattias Kait struck early on to give Estonia a shock lead against Belgium last week, only for the Red Devils to recover and win 5-2.

The NK Domzale midfielder will likely be recalled in midfield at the Cardiff City Stadium after being brought off the bench against Northern Ireland.

Henri Anier and Sander Puri are two others that played just 45 minutes on Sunday but are expected to start this game, with Rauno Sappinen the focal point up top.

Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Gunter, Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Ampadu, Allen; Wilson; Bale, Harris, James

Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Puri, Tamm, Kuusk, Mets, Pikk; Vassiljev, Kreida, Kait; Anier, Sappinen


SM words green background

We say: Wales 3-0 Estonia

Wales have lost just one of their last 16 home qualifying matches for the Euros and World Cup, while Estonia have won one of their last 18 away qualifiers for major tournaments.

The Dragons are not at full strength, while their defence is nowhere near as strong as it once was, but this is a game you would expect the hosts to comfortably win.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 56.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 19.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Wales vs Estonia

Wales
86.5%
Draw
5.6%
Estonia
7.9%
89
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