Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 43.58%. A win for Vila Nova had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Vila Nova win was 1-0 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.

Result
Vila Nova	Draw	Cruzeiro
28.52% ( -0.2)	27.9% ( -0.11)	43.58% ( 0.31)

Both teams to score 46.08% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.55% (

0.3)

59.45% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.18% (

0.23)

79.82% (

-0.23)

Vila Nova Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.2% (

36.8% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.41% (

73.59% (

-0)

Cruzeiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.92% (

0.3)

27.08% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.54% (

0.39)

62.46% (

-0.39)

Score Analysis

Vila Nova 28.52%

Cruzeiro 43.58%

Draw 27.89%

Vila Nova	Draw	Cruzeiro
1-0 @ 9.96% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.83% Total : 28.52%	1-1 @ 13.01% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.97% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.89%	0-1 @ 13.02% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.5% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.5% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.89% Total : 43.58%