Reprising a local rivalry which produced the most incredible comeback of the Serie A season, Hellas Verona and Venezia clash at Stadio Bentegodi on Sunday afternoon.
This week's visitors blew a three-goal lead to lose December's reverse fixture 4-3, so not only have three precious points in their sights but also hope of exacting revenge.
Match preview
© Reuters
Though Antonin Barak scored one of two early goals last week - becoming the club's first-ever midfielder to reach double figures in a single Serie A campaign - Verona let their lead slip at Stadio Olimpico, as Roma fought back to draw 2-2.
Conceding twice in the final half-hour to recent primavera graduates aged just 18 and 19 ended the Gialloblu's hopes of doing the double over Roma and thereby closing the gap to their capital counterparts in the standings to a single point.
Nonetheless, Hellas have been in fine form since the turn of the year, and Igor Tudor's team have both scored the most goals in Serie A (15 in seven games) following the winter break and registered the most touches in the opposition box.
Indeed, only Scudetto contenders Napoli and Milan have picked up more points than the Scaligeri's tally of 13 in 2022; while only two clubs have accumulated fewer than their next opponents.
Following their remarkable fightback in Venice a few weeks ago, Verona are unbeaten in their last five top-flight games versus Venezia, who have only added five further points to their total since December.
Precedent is also in their favour, given that the host team has remained unbeaten in five of the last six Veneto derbies in Serie A. Therefore, a side that scores an average of more than two goals per game at the Bentegodi will expect to take maximum points and consolidate their place in the top half of the table.
© Reuters
If Paolo Zanetti had hoped to build momentum on the back of ending a 10-game run without victory - in which his side lost seven times - he was frustrated by Calcio's draw specialists Genoa in a crucial battle at the bottom of Serie A last weekend.
Amid a worrying descent towards Serie B, from where they were only promoted last year, Venezia belatedly broke their duck against Torino a fortnight ago but were unable to retain a lead earned by French forward Thomas Henry and ultimately had to settle for a point.
That result represented an 11th failure to win at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo from 13 attempts this term, and the 18th-placed Arancioneroverdi have actually fared better on their travels than back home on the lagoon.
Indeed, the Lagunari have won three times on the road since their return to the Italian elite, and in their top-flight history, only in 1942-43 have they achieved more away wins in a single Serie A season.
They will be up against the odds to add another victory to that tally on Sunday, though, as only Atalanta and Lazio have scored more goals from open play than Verona this season; while Venezia themselves (with just 17) are third from bottom of the rankings in that regard.
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Due to suspensions, Igor Tudor will have to make some changes to his favoured back three on Sunday, as both Nicolo Casale and Koray Gunter will be unavailable. Therefore, Bosko Sutalo is likely to come into the side and Davide Faraoni could switch from wing-back to the right side of defence.
At the other end of the pitch, top scorer Giovanni Simeone has failed to score in his last eight league games after previously netting 12 in as many matches - including his most recent double, against Venezia in December.
The Argentinian's nine-goal strike partner Gianluca Caprari is behind only Milan's Rafael Leao in the completed dribbles rankings this term, while the other regular fixture in the hosts' front three, Antonin Barak, has already registered 10 Serie A strikes.
By contrast, Venezia have struggled for goals, and three players - Thomas Henry, Mattia Aramu and David Okereke are tied as the visitors' top scorers, on five each.
Nonetheless, that trio should start together at the Bentegodi, as the latter is back from suspension and may now replace veteran winger Nani.
Meanwhile, Gianluca Busio is also available after serving a ban and is expected to come straight into the starting XI, which could line up in a 3-4-3 formation.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Faraoni, Ceccherini, Sutalo; Depaoli, Tameze, Ilic, Lazovic; Barak, Caprari; Simeone
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Romero; Svoboda, Caldara, Ceccaroni; Crnigoj, Busio, Cuisance, Haps; Aramu, Henry, Okereke
We say: Hellas Verona 2-1 Venezia
Hellas will do the double over their neighbours from the lagoon, as their goal threat is just too much for Venezia to handle.
Though a European place will most probably elude them, the hosts are back on an upward trajectory, and they can push forward freely on Sunday due to their visitors' failings in the final third.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 66.63%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 14.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.16%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hellas Verona would win this match.
