Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Richmond Kickers win with a probability of 42.42%. A win for Loudoun United had a probability of 32.81% and a draw had a probability of 24.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Richmond Kickers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Loudoun United win was 1-2 (7.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.