Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Virginia win with a probability of 48.09%. A win for Richmond Kickers had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Virginia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.12%) and 0-2 (6.55%). The likeliest Richmond Kickers win was 2-1 (6.59%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.