Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.