Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 47.8%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 22.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.53%) and 2-1 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.94%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Danubio would win this match.