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Union Berlin logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 1
Aug 14, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Leverkusen logo

Union Berlin
1 - 1
B. Leverkusen

Awoniyi (7')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Diaby (12')
Diaby (28')

Preview: Union Berlin vs. Bayer Leverkusen - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two teams that earned European qualification in last season's Bundesliga meet on this season's opening weekend on Saturday.

In contrast though, Union Berlin's finish was an outstanding achievement, whereas Bayer Leverkusen's was certainly a disappointment.


Match preview

FC Union Berlin coach Urs Fischer before the match on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Union manager Urs Fischer has worked wonders at the Berlin club. After achieving promotion from the 2.Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history in his opening season, he has then led them to impressive 11th and seventh-placed finishes in the two seasons that followed.

Last season's wonders saw them gain qualification to the Europa Conference League's debut campaign, ahead of the likes of Borussia Monchengladbach.

A bright pre-season gives them even more reason to be positive ahead of the new campaign this year, with Union managing to prepare impressively by remaining unbeaten in their five friendlies, winning four of them.

This form comes on the back of a summer window that has seen 14 senior signings so far, so there have been no signs of the squad struggling to gel as of yet.

Following on from there, Union began their competitive fixtures this season with a 1-0 win in the first round of the DFB-Pokal last weekend, away to third-tier side Turkgucu Munchen.

After beating this weekend's opponents at home and drawing away from home last season, the hosts will be hopeful of a positive result to begin their campaign.

When you also consider Union's astonishing home record last year, the home faithful will almost be expectant of a result, despite the stature of opponent.

That home record contained just the one defeat in the Bundesliga all season, which was the very first against Augsburg.

Bayer Leverkusen coach Gerardo Seoane arrives ahead of the match on August 7, 2021© Reuters

Bayer Leverkusen begin their season full of optimism for a fresh start. A disappointing year left the side in sixth place come May - their lowest finish since 2016-17 and one which meant they had to settle for Europa League qualification, rather than Champions League, yet again.

As a result, Peter Bosz was sacked in March and Hannes Wolf took interim charge until the end of the season; the new man in charge is Gerardo Seoane, whom many will not have heard of.

Seoane boasts an impressive CV already, though, arriving from Swiss Super League side Young Boys, where he won the title in all three seasons, and he leaves the league having become the only manager to ever achieve three titles in a row and with the best points-per-game ratio in its history.

Seoane arrives at a Leverkusen side that will be missing the goals, assists and directness of forward Leon Bailey, who left for Aston Villa earlier in the summer.

Demarai Gray has also moved on to the Premier League but new arrivals include Mitchel Bakker from Paris Saint-Germain and big-money signing Odilon Kossounou from Club Brugge.

Forward Patrik Schick will be the go-to man for goals this season after an impressive showing at this summer's European Championships, where he finished joint-top goalscorer.

Leverkusen's preparations for the opener have been rather short, however; only two friendly matches have been played - a draw and a humbling 5-1 defeat at home to FC Utrecht.

On a more positive note though, a comfortable 3-0 win followed in the first round of the DFB-Pokal last weekend against amateur side Lokomotive Leipzig.

Faced against a side they failed to beat last season, Leverkusen will also be hoping to improve on their patchy away record towards the end of the campaign, which they finished with the failure to win any of the final five away from home and scoring only once in this time.

Union Berlin form (all competitions):
  • W

Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions):
  • W



Team News

Patrik Schick celebrates scoring for the Czech Republic against Scotland at Euro 2020 on June 14, 2021© Reuters

Union Berlin will be hoping Max Kruse can continue his fine form from his first season at the club last year that helped them finish in the European places. He will be starting in an instrumental role as usual.

A number of players will be hoping to make their Bundesliga debuts for Union after a summer of 14 senior arrivals so far.

Taiwo Awoniyi is the biggest of those signings, signing on a permanent deal from Liverpool, and he is expected to lead the line.

The home side have minimal injury worries for the opener - Leon Dajaku and Grischa Promel are not expected to be fit enough to play a part just yet, whilst Sheraldo Becker is labelled as a doubt.

Leverkusen have bigger problems than their hosts in terms of injuries, with Lucas Alario and Karim Bellarabi notable absentees, along with Timothy Fosu-Mensah and Edmond Tapsoba.

Young breakthrough star from last season Florian Wirtz is also labelled as a doubt with a groin issue.

New big-money signing Kossounou is expected to make his debut in central defence, whilst the previously mentioned Schick will lead from the front for the away side.

Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Trimmel, Friedrich, Knoche, Giesselmann; Khedira, Andrich; Ingvartsen, Kruse, Voglsammer; Awoniyi

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Kossounou, Retsos, Sinkgraven; Aranguiz, Demirbay; Paulinho, Amiri, Diaby; Schick


SM words green background

We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen

We think this will be a tight affair between two fairly matched teams from last season. Leverkusen are probably still the stronger of the two sides but Union's strong home form is not to be underestimated so we think this one will be a draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Matthew Tranter

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 49.46%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 25.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.52%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-0 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Union Berlin vs B. Leverkusen

Union Berlin
35.4%
Draw
33.8%
Bayer Leverkusen
30.8%
65
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1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1383233181527
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Freiburg147342019124
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9Borussia DortmundDortmund136342420421
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
11Stuttgart135532623320
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
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