Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 64.05%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Vorskla Poltava had a probability of 15.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Vorskla Poltava win it was 0-1 (5.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.