Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Karpaty Lviv win with a probability of 46.05%. A win for Zorya Luhansk had a probability of 28.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Karpaty Lviv win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Zorya Luhansk win was 0-1 (7.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.