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Udinese logo
Serie A | Gameweek 29
Mar 13, 2022 at 5pm UK
Stadio Friuli
Roma logo

Udinese
1 - 1
Roma

Molina (15')
Deulofeu (26'), Makengo (86'), Becao (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Pellegrini (90+4' pen.)
Afena-Gyan (70'), Ibanez (88')

Preview: Udinese vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Udinese and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Back in the top four race after an upturn in form, Roma travel north to Udinese on Sunday, seeking a fourth successive win in all competitions.

Back-to-back Serie A successes have drawn the Giallorossi level on points with fifth-placed Atalanta, who they beat last weekend, and they will be keen to maintain that momentum by bettering their mid-table hosts.


Match preview

Roma's Sergio Oliveira celebrates scoring their first goal with Gianluca Mancini and teammates on March 10, 2022© Reuters

Just days after a crucial win over one of their closest rivals in the Serie A standings, Roma added another game to their growing unbeaten streak by earning a 1-0 win against Vitesse Arnhem in the first leg of the clubs' Europa Conference League last-16 tie on Thursday.

January recruit Sergio Oliveira - signed on loan from Porto - certainly had an eventful game at the GelreDome, as he scored the only goal at the end of the first half before being shown a red card during the second.

As a result of their third straight victory, Jose Mourinho's men are strong favourites to progress to the quarter-finals in the competition's inaugural season and are well-placed to deliver some long overdue silverware.

Following one of several rocky spells this term, Roma have bounced back from last month's Coppa Italia exit by salvaging successive draws with late comebacks, then going on to beat Spezia and then Atalanta - the latter result coming courtesy of Tammy Abraham's 32nd-minute strike at Stadio Olimpico last week.

Those three points see Mourinho's side sitting sixth in the table - just above fierce rivals Lazio, and within six points of the top four. They are also unbeaten in their last seven league games, and could now record the club's longest run without a Serie A loss since August 2020.

While they have generally produced their best results on home soil - often struggling on the road - Roma will visit Udine as favourites to prevail based purely on precedent.

Having won 1-0 in September's reverse fixture, the Giallorossi have taken maximum points from 15 of their last 17 games against Sunday's opponents in Serie A - keeping 10 clean sheets in the process.

Udinese's Destiny Udogie celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 25, 2022© Reuters

Following their defeat at the Olimpico earlier this season, Udinese's inferiority when matched with Roma extends to a total of 282 minutes without even a goal, and seven losses in their last eight home games against the capital club.

Scoring just twice during that time, their last home victory in this fixture came back in November 2018, but at least an up-tick in their previously dire form will help them face their nemesis in good spirits.

After edging out fellow strugglers Sampdoria last Saturday, 14th-placed Udinese now aim to win consecutive Serie A matches for the first time under coach Gabriele Cioffi, having not achieved that modest feat since last September.

Early goals from Gerard Deulofeu and Destiny Udogie helped the Bianconeri to a 2-1 victory at the Dacia Arena, and they now approach their second successive home game with seven points separating them from the bottom three.

They still retain at least one game in hand on their bottom-half counterparts following a series of COVID-19 cancellations around the turn of the year, so Cioffi will be confident of steering his side to safety by the end of May.

Facing both Roma and Napoli within the next week, though, means that things may have to get worse before they get much better.

Udinese Serie A form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W

Roma Serie A form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W

Roma form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Roma coach Jose Mourinho reacts on February 8, 2022© Reuters

Having been sidelined himself by a recent dismissal from the dugout, Jose Mourinho has seen seven red cards (for either side) in as many games involving his team, and though Sergio Oliveira's suspension only applies to Europe, Henrikh Mkhitaryan must serve a one-match ban on Sunday following his sending-off against Atalanta.

Centre-back Marash Kumbulla is also suspended due to yellow card accumulation, so Chris Smalling should replace him in the back three which faced Vitesse in midweek.

Twenty-year-old Nicola Zalewski overcame an ankle injury sustained last weekend to take a place on the bench in the Netherlands, so he will contest the left wing-back role with Matias Vina and Ainsley Maitland-Niles.

Following his decisive strikes against Spezia and Atalanta, Tammy Abraham has scored the opening goal more often than any other player throughout the top five European leagues this season - eight times in total - and the tireless England striker once again starts up front.

Though Isaac Success is not expected to feature due to injury and Brazilian midfielder Walace must serve a suspension, Udinese will benefit from a settled squad.

While Mato Jajalo is favoured to replace the latter in Gabriele Cioffi's 3-5-2 formation, the hosts' starting XI could otherwise be unchanged.

From the left flank, Destiny Udogie has netted in his last two games, while midfielder Roberto Pereyra recently returned from a shoulder injury to provide an assist in each of his last two outings. Dutch defender Bram Nuytinck is also back from injury and will most likely start on the bench.

Udinese possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Becao, Mari, Perez; Molina, Arslan, Jajalo, Pereyra, Udogie; Deulofeu, Beto

Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Mancini, Smalling, Ibanez; Karsdorp, Cristante, Oliveira, Zalewski; Pellegrini; Zaniolo, Abraham


SM words green background

We say: Udinese 1-2 Roma

Both the weight of recent history and Roma's revival is against the home side on Sunday, as they attempt to pull further clear of the drop zone.

Even if Udinese do manage to take the lead, their visitors are among the best teams at fighting back late on, and in the process of taking all three points the Giallorossi can extend their unbeaten streak to a seventh Serie A game.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Udinese had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Udinese win was 1-0 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Udinese vs Roma

Udinese
17.6%
Draw
16.2%
Roma
66.2%
74
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
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5Lazio15101430171331
6Juventus16610026121428
7AC Milan146442416822
8Bologna145722018222
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino165471720-319
12Roma154471821-316
13Parma153662125-415
14Genoa153661324-1115
15CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
16Lecce15348826-1813
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