Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal Under-21s win with a probability of 47.07%. A win for England Under-21s had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest England Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that England Under-21s would win this match.