Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 38.6%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 37.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.4%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Luzern win was 2-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.