Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Winterthur win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Basel had a probability of 38.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Winterthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.78%) and 2-0 (5.35%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.