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Swansea logo
Championship | Gameweek 38
Mar 20, 2021 at 5.30pm UK
Liberty Stadium
Cardiff City logo

Swansea
0 - 1
Cardiff

FT(HT: 0-1)
Flint (8')
Morrison (45+1'), Vaulks (81'), Brown (90+1')

Preview: Swansea City vs. Cardiff City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Swansea City and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The second South Wales derby of the campaign will take place at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday evening when Swansea City host Cardiff City in the Championship.

Only Norwich City and Watford have accumulated more points on home soil than the Swans so far this season, while the Bluebirds are unbeaten in their last seven away league games.


Match preview

Swansea City manager Steve Cooper pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Swansea's hopes of securing automatic promotion were dealt a blow on Tuesday night as they suffered a 3-0 defeat away at playoff hopefuls Bournemouth.

An own goal from Joel Latibeaudiere, as well as strikes from Philip Billing and Arnaut Danjuma, secured a commanding victory for the hosts, which leaves the Swans in third place, three points behind Watford.

Head coach Steve Cooper admitted that it was a "frustrating night" on the south coast and although he suggested that his side "might have been a bit fatigued", he felt that there were no excuses for such a poor performance.

Swansea are 17 points better off than at this stage last season and are also six places higher in the table, competing for the automatic promotion places rather than a top-six finish. Cooper's men have improved significantly from last season and are now nipping at Watford's heels but need to get back to winning ways quickly if their hopes of a top-two finish are to be achieved.

The Swans are unbeaten in their last four league games against Cardiff, winning three of those meetings, including a 2-0 victory at the Cardiff City Stadium in December.

Victory for Swansea this weekend would see them complete their first league double over Cardiff as well as claim their third successive home win against their Welsh rivals.

Cardiff City manager Mick McCarthy pictured on February 16, 2021© Reuters

Cardiff's impressive run of form under manager Mick McCarthy has slightly derailed as they have failed to win any of their last three league matches, including a goalless draw at home to Stoke City on Tuesday night.

Dropping seven points this month has seen the Bluebirds slip six points behind the playoffs and with only nine games left to play, draws are no longer enough for McCarthy's side, who need to return to winning ways sharply if they are to keep in touch with the other promotion contenders.

Saturday's fixture will not be an easy challenge, however, as they face their Welsh rivals who the Bluebirds have failed to win and score against in each of their last four meetings.

McCarthy will be keen for Cardiff's top goalscorer Kieffer Moore to rediscover his ruthless streak in front of goal. The 28-year-old has scored 16 times in the Championship so far this term but has struggled for form recently, finding the net just three times in his last eight appearances.

Claiming three points at the Liberty Stadium for the first time since February 2011 could move Cardiff to within three points of sixth-placed Reading, who the Bluebirds face next month.

Swansea City Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D


Team News

Swansea City's Jamal Lowe celebrates scoring their first goal against Watford on January 2, 2021© Reuters

Cooper may decide to make one or two changes to his starting lineup after their defeat to Bournemouth in midweek.

Left-back Jake Bidwell could come in for Ryan Manning, while creative midfielder Yan Dhanda may be recalled at the expense of Jamal Lowe.

Centre-back Marc Guehi remains doubtful with a groin problem, which could see Latibeaudiere keep his place in the first XI.

Cardiff right-back Jordi Osei-Tutu (hamstring) and midfielder Lee Tomlin (groin) are unlikely to feature this weekend after lengthy spells on the sidelines.

Harry Wilson and Joe Ralls are both pushing for recalls to McCarthy's starting lineup, potentially at the expense of Sheyi Ojo and Marlon Pack.

Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Bennett, Latibeaudiere; Roberts, Smith, Grimes, Bidwell; Hourihane, Dhanda; Ayew

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Morrison, Flint, Brown; Ng, Vaulks, Ralls, Sang; Bacuna, Wilson; Moore


SM words green background

We say: Swansea City 1-1 Cardiff City


Both Swansea and Cardiff will be keen to claim the bragging rights this weekend and keep their hopes of promotion to the Premier League in sight as they head into the final quarter of the campaign.

Even though the Swans have kept more home clean sheets than any other Championship team this season (11) and have not conceded in any of their last four meetings against Cardiff, we can see the Bluebirds finding the net on Saturday, in what is expected to be a tight encounter in South Wales.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:439810:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect10270:
Written by
Oliver Thomas

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-0 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cardiff City in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Swansea vs Cardiff

Swansea City
50.0%
Draw
35.1%
Cardiff City
14.9%
94
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Bournemouth manager Jonathan Woodgate pictured on February 20, 2021
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