Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fatih Karagumruk win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Samsunspor had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fatih Karagumruk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Samsunspor win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fatih Karagumruk would win this match.