Stuttgart continue their quest for Bundesliga survival when they welcome Wolfsburg to the Mercedes Benz Arena on Saturday.
The hosts remain in huge danger of the drop following a four-game winless streak, whilst the visitors all but confirmed their survival following a thumping win last weekend.
Match preview
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When Stuttgart ended a dreadful run of form by picking up an impressive seven points from three games at the beginning of March, they looked to be stringing together a positive set of results worthy of pulling themselves away from danger.
However, since the dramatic 3-2 comeback win against fellow strugglers Augsburg over a month ago, Pellegrino Matarazzo's side have failed to win in their last four outings.
Hard-fought draws at Arminia Bielefeld and Mainz 05 have preceded defeats to Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin, with the latter being a particularly damaging blow to their hopes of survival.
The relegation six-pointer in the capital was a huge opportunity for Die Roten to climb off the relegation playoff spot and put some daylight between themselves and Bielefeld in the automatic drop zone.
However, despite enjoying their fair share of possession and opportunities on goal, particularly in the second 45, Stuttgart lacked the quality decision making and finishing required in the final third to get something out of the game.
This has been the case in recent weeks for Matarazzo's side, who will look to end a run of three matches without a goal when they host Wolfsburg on Saturday, with the disappointing run seeing them cut four points adrift of Hertha in safety as a result.
With next weekend's daunting trip to champions Bayern Munich to follow, and a tough task against European chasing FC Koln on the final day, Saturday's hosts may well see the encounter at the Mercedes Benz Arena as a must-win if they are to escape from danger in the closing weeks of the campaign.
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Meanwhile, Wolfsburg's inconsistent season continued when they hosted Mainz last weekend, albeit for a positive reason on this occasion.
A recent 4-0 thumping of Bielefeld on home soil was followed by a humiliating 6-1 defeat at Dortmund on their travels, before Florian Kohfeldt's men bounced back to record a 5-0 hammering of their visitors for another comprehensive result at the Volkswagen Arena last time out.
The sending off of visiting defender Niklas Tauer midway through the first half proved to be a pivotal moment, with the score only at 1-0 at this stage, before a remarkable attacking display for the remainder of the opening 45 yielded four further goals for Die Wolfe as they made the extra man count.
However, Kohfeldt will be looking for his side to carry those big home wins into their away form too when they travel to Stuttgart on Saturday, with disappointing results on the road in recent weeks, as well as all campaign, contributing to a hugely disappointing campaign.
Despite the three points last time out, Wolfsburg could only move up to 12th in the table, which opened up a nine-point gap between this weekend's opponents in the relegation playoff spot, meaning survival has been all but confirmed.
Retaining their Bundesliga status was certainly not the goal when Wolfsburg kicked off the season back in August, but now that a catastrophic drop out of the top flight has been avoided, Saturday's visitors will look to finish the season strongly and climb as high as possible in the table with the view ahead to a much-improved season next year.
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Team News
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Numerous injuries continue to limit Matarazzo's options for Stuttgart, as they have done all season, with as many as seven first-team players potentially being unavailable on Saturday.
Naouirou Ahamada, Nikolas Nartey, Mohamed Sankoh, Silas Katompa Mvumpa and Pascal Stenzel are all ruled out for the hosts, whilst Clinton Mola and Omar Marmoush are labelled as doubts.
Atakan Karazor and Daniel Didavi look to have recovered from COVID-19 and a heel injury respectively however, with the former potentially coming into the side in the place of the injured Stenzel, which would see Waldemar Anton move deeper into a more familiar role in the heart of the defence.
As for the visitors, Maxence Lacroix remains a doubt due to the hamstring injury that ruled him out of the thumping win against Mainz.
Should the Frenchman miss out once more, Kohfeldt is likely to name an unchanged starting lineup, meaning a four-man defence should remain in place ahead of his preferred three-man back line.
Regardless of any alterations at the back though, Jonas Wind and Max Kruse will continue in attack after the duo shared all five goals between them last time out, with Lukas Nmecha also joining the forwards in a threatening attacking trio.
Long-term absentees Micky van de Ven, William and Paulo Otavio are joined on the sidelines by Luca Waldschmidt.
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Muller; Mavropanos, Anton, Ito, Sosa; Endo, Karazor, Mangala; Tomas, Kalajdzic, Fuhrich
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Baku, Bornauw, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Arnold, Gerhardt; Wind, L Nmecha, Kruse
We say: Stuttgart 2-1 Wolfsburg
Stuttgart have earned some dramatic home wins in recent weeks to keep their survival hopes alive, and with so much riding on this game, we can see them rising to the occasion to earn a vital victory here.
The visitors may well have impressed last time out, but inconsistencies in their season, as well as their poor run of form on the road, mean it remains difficult to see them putting together back-to-back wins.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 44.65%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.7%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
