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Stoke logo
EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 23, 2020 at 7pm UK
Bet365 Stadium
Gillingham
Stoke
1 - 0
Gillingham
Campbell (37')
McClean (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Maghoma (90'), Jackson (90')

Preview: Stoke City vs. Gillingham - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup third-round tie between Stoke City and Gillingham, including team news and predicted lineups.

Stoke City head into their EFL Cup third round tie with Gillingham looking to build on an impressive win over Wolverhampton Wanderers last week.

Meanwhile, League One outfit Gillingham reached this stage of the competition courtesy of a penalty-shootout success over Coventry City.


Match preview

Stoke City manager Michael O'Neill pictured on July 4, 2020© Reuters

Having gotten the better of Premier League outfit Wolves on Thursday night, everything pointed to Stoke putting in another strong performance against Bristol City in the Championship.

However, the Potters succumbed to their first defeat of the season, conceding goals at the end of each half to the in-form Robins.

Michael O'Neill may look to view the game in isolation, aware that his side have shown enough resilience in their opening fixtures to suggest that they will challenge for promotion this year.

Nevertheless, there will be an acknowledgement that the setback has increased the pressure ahead of this contest as they bid to click into gear in the final third.

While three clean sheets have been recorded in four matches, the Staffordshire outfit have only contributed one goal at the other end of the pitch.

Gillingham have enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, combining three wins in normal time with their dramatic triumph over Coventry in the previous round of this competition.

Steve Evans will be the first to admit that work needs to be done to improve a defence which have failed to shut out the opposition in four attempts.

However, having conceded two thirds of possession during the wins over the Sky Blues and Wigan Athletic, there can be no complaints about the character of a squad which includes a dozen fresh faces.

Challenging for promotion from League One will be Evans's priority, but he will be eager to progress through to an away tie against either Bristol City or Aston Villa in the next round.

Stoke City EFL Cup form: WW
Stoke City form (all competitions): WDWL

Gillingham EFL Cup form: WD
Gillingham form (all competitions): WWLDW


Team News

Steven Fletcher celebrates scoring for Sheffield Wednesday on September 15, 2019© Reuters

Steven Fletcher is in line to come into the starting lineup after a period spent among the replacements.

The team should be similar to the one which dispatched Wolves, which would mean outings for the likes of Nathan Collins and Harry Souttar at the back.

Goalkeeper Jack Butland is expected to remain among the substitutes as he continues to be linked with a move away from the bet365 Stadium.

Evans may opt to keep changes to a minimum having witnessed his side record two positive results in a row.

Henry Woods, Matty Willock and John Akinde are all pushing for starting roles.

Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Davies; Collins, Souttar, Martins Indi; Smith, Oakley-Boothe, Thompson, Tymon; McClean, Fletcher, Gregory

Gillingham possible starting lineup:
Bonham; Jackson, Maghoma, Tucker, Ogilvie; Woods, Robertson, Willock; Graham, Akinde, Coyle


SM words green background

We say: Stoke City 2-0 Gillingham

Despite the changes which will be made for this game, we still expect a relatively comfortable night for the home team. While some players may be short of match fitness, they will be eager to make an impact on their chance in the first team.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:curl

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Stoke City in this match.


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Bristol City assistant manager Dean Holden pictured in July 2020
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