18th-placed Sparta Rotterdam and 16th-placed PEC Zwolle go head to head in a mouth-watering relegation scrap at the Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel on Wednesday.
De Kasteelheren set out to pick up a second consecutive victory which could see them move from the drop zone, while the visitors will be aiming to snap their two-game winless run and keep their slim survival hopes alive.
Match preview
Sparta Rotterdam kept their hopes of beating the drop alive last Saturday when they picked up an impressive 2-1 victory against 10th-placed Groningen at the Euroborg Stadion.
Goals in either half from Arno Verschueren and Lennart Thy put the visitors on course before Club Brugge loanee Bjorn Meijer pulled one back for Danny Buijs's side in the 77th minute.
De Kasteelheren are now unbeaten in all but one of their last four outings — picking up two wins and one draw — with a 2-0 loss at FC Twente on April 22 being the exception.
With 29 points from 32 games, Maurice Steijn's men are currently 16th in the Eredivisie standings, two points above Wednesday's visitors at the bottom of the pile and three off Fortuna Sittard just outside the relegation zone.
Off the back of an eighth-placed finish last season, Sparta Rotterdam's underwhelming campaign could be pinned to their lack of sting in attack, where they hold the league's joint-worst record with 25 goals scored so far.
Elsewhere, PEC Zwolle failed to return to winning ways last time out as they played out a 1-1 draw with FC Utrecht when the sides squared off at the MAC³PARK stadion.
Hidde ter Avest opened his account for the season to put the visitors ahead in the 29th minute but Hertha Berlin loanee Daishawn Redan scored in the 73rd minute to force a share of the spoils.
Prior to that, Dick Schreuder's side were on the receiving end of a 3-0 thrashing against league leaders Ajax on April 30 which saw their two-game winning streak come to an end.
PEC Zwolle, who now face serious risks of falling to the second tier for the first time since gaining promotion in the 2011-2012 campaign, must avoid any slip-ups in their final two outings if they hope to beat the drop.
Next up is an opposing side who they are unbeaten against in 10 of the last 13 meetings between the sides across all competitions since 2010, claiming seven wins and three draws in that time.
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Team News
Sparta Rotterdam will take to the pitch without the services of 28-year-old defender Michael Goncalves Pinto, who picked up an injury against Vitesse on April 19.
He is joined on De Kasteelheren's injury table by German midfielder Mario Engels, who is set to sit out this third game on the bounce through a hamstring problem.
PEC Zwolle's injury list is more hefty by comparison as the trio of Dean Huiberts, Samir Lagsir and Sam Kersten are recuperating from knee injuries.
Dutch forward Mustafa Saymak, who has 21 league appearances to his name this season, is also out of contention for the visitors after coming off injured in March's game versus Twente.
Fellow forward Oussama Darfalou is also a major doubt for the Blauwvingers having missed each of their last two games through a muscle problem.
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Abels, Vriends, Auassar, Meijers; Mijnans, de Kamps, Verschueren; Namli, Crooij, Thy
PEC Zwolle possible starting lineup:
Lamprou; van Polen, Nakayama, de Wit; Anderson, van den Belt, Clement, Paal; Kastaneer, Redan, Landu
We say: Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle
Given the stakes of the game, we expect a thrilling contest with both sides going all out in search of the win. However, we predict they will cancel out each other's efforts and settle for a share of the spoils.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 43.83%. A win for PEC Zwolle has a probability of 30.85% and a draw has a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win is 0-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.99%).
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
