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Southampton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 36
Jul 16, 2020 at 8.15pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Brighton logo

Southampton
1 - 1
Brighton

Ings (66')
Romeu (7')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Maupay (17')

Preview: Southampton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Premier League clash between Southampton and Brighton & Hove Albion, including team news and predicted lineups.

Brighton & Hove Albion will be aiming to solidify their position in the Premier League standings when they travel across the South Coast to take on Southampton in Thursday evening's clash.

Southampton have little to play for in the closing stages as they lie 12th in the table, whereas Brighton occupy 15th spot - five points clear of the relegation zone.


Match preview

Michael Obafemi wheels away in celebration after scoring Southampton's equaliser against Manchester United on July 13, 2020© Reuters

Travelling to Old Trafford to face a free-scoring Manchester United side would not have filled the Southampton faithful with confidence on Monday, but the Saints managed to end United's winning run to salvage a point in a four-goal thriller.

Stuart Armstrong's opener was quickly cancelled out by strikes from Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford, and Southampton's unbeaten run seemed destined to come to an end before Michael Obafemi bundled in an equaliser deep into injury time.

The result means that Ralph Hasenhuttl's men continue their strong run of form and have now taken eight points from their last 12 on offer, and Saints fans can certainly feel optimistic heading into next season given the manner of their side's recent performances.

Since the Premier League was given the green light to resume, Southampton have only suffered one defeat from six in the English top flight, and Hasenhuttl's side can rest easy knowing that they have secured yet another season of Premier League football.

The Saints will no doubt want to make a statement of intent heading into next season, though, with fixtures against Bournemouth and Sheffield United to follow before Hasenhuttl can begin making preparations for the 2020-21 campaign.

Brighton manager Graham Potter pictured on June 30, 2020© Reuters

Brighton have been handed one of the toughest fixture lists upon the Premier League's restart, and the Seagulls felt the full force of a Manchester City onslaught at the weekend.

Following on from their home defeat to champions Liverpool, Brighton had little time to dwell on that defeat as they welcomed last season's champions to the South Coast just a few days later, and the Citizens went about their business comfortably as a Raheem Sterling hat-trick helped City record a 5-0 drubbing over Brighton.

Despite having tasted defeat in three of their last four Premier League outings, Graham Potter's men should have done enough to ensure survival with just three games left to go, although they will need to be wary of four out of five sides below them picking up wins last time out.

The battle to avoid relegation is, as per usual, expected to go right down to the wire, and Brighton will be determined to pick up as many points as possible in their remaining fixtures with Southampton, Newcastle United and Burnley as the 2019-20 season draws to a close.

Brighton have not beaten the Saints since the two clubs were plying their trade in the Championship, however, with Southampton recording wins in the last two meetings between the South Coast clubs.

Southampton Premier League form: WLWWDD

Brighton Premier League form: WDLWLL


Team News

Southampton forward Shane Long pictured in December 2019© Reuters

The hero of the hour at Old Trafford, Michael Obafemi, will certainly be hoping that his contribution on Monday is rewarded with a spot in the starting lineup for the midweek showdown with Brighton.

However, Shane Long would be a more realistic option to partner golden boot hopeful Danny Ings up front for the Saints, meaning that Che Adams could drop to the bench.

Sofiane Boufal, Yan Valery and Moussa Djenepo are all nursing injuries and Hasenhuttl will have to make do without the trio once more.

As for Brighton, Jose Izquierdo and Steven Alzate are Potter's only injury concerns, and Tariq Lamptey is expected to slot in at right-back in place of Martin Montoya.

Dan Burn is also in line to return to the opposite side of defence, while top scorer Neal Maupay should replace Aaron Connolly in the Brighton attack.

Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Stephens, Bednarek, Bertrand; Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Smallbone, Redmond; Long, Ings

Brighton possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Lamptey, Dunk, Webster, Burn; Stephens, Propper, Bissouma; Mooy, Maupay, Trossard


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Southampton 2-1 Brighton

Southampton have done themselves proud over the past few weeks with memorable results against the two Manchester clubs. The Saints boast a strong recent record over their South Coast rivals too, so we expect Hasenhuttl's men to keep their impressive run going with a narrow victory on Thursday evening.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.


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