SheBelieves Cup
Mar 4, 2026 11.45pm
GEODIS Park

USA Women vs Canada Women - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

USA Women

All competitions
SheBelieves Cup
Last game
Mar 1, 2026 10.00pm
USA Women 2 - 0 Argentina Women

Canada Women

All competitions
SheBelieves Cup
Last game
Mar 1, 2026 7.00pm
Canada Women 4 - 1 Colombia Women

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a USA Women win with a probability of 55.89%. A win for Canada Women has a probability of 22.98% and a draw has a probability of 21.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.15%) and 3-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Canada Women win is 0-1 (6.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.05%).

Result

USA Women 55.89% (-11.13)
Draw 21.06% (+4.36)
Canada Women 22.98% (+6.72)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.05% (+6.30)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.58% (-2.46)
Under 1.5 21.42% (+2.46)
Over 2.5 55.51% (-3.47)
Under 2.5 44.49% (+3.47)
Over 3.5 33.54% (-3.35)
Under 3.5 66.46% (+3.34)
Over 4.5 21.9% (-4.80)
Under 4.5 78.1% (+4.79)

First Half Winner

USA Women 56.24%
Draw 30.84%
Canada Women 12.92%

Team To Score First

USA Women 75.17% (-0.68)
No Goal 5.59% (+0.84)
Canada Women 19.24% (-0.18)

Corners

Over 8 48.19%
Equal 8 10.2%
Under 8 41.61%
Over 9 38.42%
Equal 9 9.77%
Under 9 51.81%
Over 10.5 29.74%
Under 10.5 70.26%

USA Women Goals

Over 1.5 53.73% (-8.97)
Under 1.5 46.27% (+8.97)
Over 2.5 31.36% (-9.25)
Under 2.5 68.64% (+9.25)
Over 3.5 13.49% (-6.71)
Under 3.5 86.51% (+6.71)

Canada Women Goals

Over 0.5 53.54% (+11.23)
Under 0.5 46.46% (-11.23)
Over 1.5 24.97% (+6.92)
Under 1.5 75.03% (-6.93)
Over 2.5 9.02% (+2.52)
Under 2.5 90.98% (-2.52)
Over 3.5 2.93% (+0.68)
Under 3.5 97.07% (-0.68)

Score analysis

USA Women 55.88%
Draw 21.07%
Canada Women 22.99%
USA Women
1-0 @ 9.43% (-0.21)
2-0 @ 9.15% (-2.18)
3-0 @ 8.96% (-3.00)
2-1 @ 7.12% (+0.82)
3-1 @ 5.06% (-0.33)
3-2 @ 2.89% (+0.50)
Other @ 13.27% (-6.75)
Total : 55.88%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.05% (+2.07)
0-0 @ 5.59% (+0.84)
2-2 @ 4.25% (+1.15)
Other @ 0.22% (+0.05)
Total : 21.07%
Canada Women
0-1 @ 6.34% (+1.76)
1-2 @ 4.95% (+1.64)
0-2 @ 3.86% (+1.13)
1-3 @ 2.35% (+0.65)
2-3 @ 1.85% (+0.51)
Other @ 2.71% (+0.63)
Total : 22.99%

Head to Head

SheBelieves Cup
Apr 10, 2024 12.00am
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT Lower.com Field
  • Sophia Smith 50' goal
  • Sophia Smith 50' goal
  • Sophia Smith 68' goal
  • Sophia Smith 68' goal
  • yellowcard Jessie Fleming 23'
  • yellowcard Jessie Fleming 23'
  • goal Adriana Leon 40'
  • goal Adriana Leon 40'
  • goal Adriana Leon 86'
  • goal Adriana Leon 86'
SheBelieves Cup
Feb 17, 2023 12.00am
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Mallory Pugh 7' goal
  • Mallory Pugh 34' goal
Olympic Games Women's Football
Aug 2, 2021 9.00am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Kashima Soccer Stadium
  • Kelley O'Hara 32' yellowcard
  • goal Jessie Fleming 74'
SheBelieves Cup
Feb 19, 2021 12.00am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Rose Lavelle 79' goal