High-flying Sevilla will travel to Vitoria-Gasteiz this week for their La Liga clash with Alaves at the Estadio Mendizorroza.
Julen Lopetegui's Sevilla side, who are currently sixth in the league, will approach this encounter knowing that a win could propel them into fourth place, the golden ticket for Las Palanganas this season.
Match preview
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New Alaves boss Abelardo saw his return to El Glorioso immediately stunted at the weekend after his side were thrashed 5-0 in their Copa del Rey matchup against Segunda Division side Almeria.
Abelardo, who was brought back into the fray last week following the dismissal of Pablo Machin, managed the club from 2017 to 2019, winning 28 of his 69 games.
A loss against Sevilla on Tuesday night could spell inauspicious beginnings for the man from Gijon. A win, however, could see his stock rise significantly among fans.
Machin's dismissal came after El Glorioso won just one game in their last seven in the league, picking up just five points from a possible 18.
The team's 3-1 loss to league new-boys Cadiz last time out was enough to convince the club's hierarchy that a change was very much needed.
Despite veteran striker Joselu scoring an early penalty, it was a lacklustre display from El Glorioso that saw Alberto Rodriguez get sent off just after the break.
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At Sevilla, things could not be more different. Lopetegui's second season at the helm of the Andalusian club has been considered impressive enough to warrant a new contract for man from the Basque country.
Lopetegui's contract extension will see him remain at the club until at least 2024.
Sevilla were unlucky against Atletico Madrid in the league last time out, with Los Palanganas losing 2-0 at the Wanda Metropolitano.
However, there is no chance that Lopetegui will let this particular result negatively influence his side's run of good form in recent months.
Prior to the Atletico game, Lopetegui's men had only been beaten once in seven consecutive league games, picking up 14 points along the way.
Against an embattled Alaves side that appear to be in the midst of a tumultuous managerial switch, there is no doubt that Lopetegui will expect to come away with all three points.
Alaves La Liga form: LLWDLL
Alaves form (all competitions): WDLWLL
Sevilla La Liga form: DWWDWL
Sevilla form (all competitions): WDWWLW
Team News
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In addition to the suspended Rodriguez, Abelardo will also be without Rodrigo Ely, who is out with a ligament injury.
Star strikers Lucas Perez and Joselu did not feature at all against Almeria at the weekend and are both likely to return for Abelardo's first league game since his return to the club.
As for Sevilla, Lopetegui has no fresh injury concerns to contend with but will still be without Tomas Vaclik, Sergio Escudero and Carlos Fernandez, who are all currently out nursing injuries.
Key players like Joan Jordan and Diego Carlos featured in their 1-0 win against Leganes in the Copa del Rey and will likely play again on Tuesday night.
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Jota, Battaglia, Pina, Rioja; Joselu, Perez
Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Bono; Navas, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna; Rakitic, Fernando, Jordan; Suso, En-Nesyri, Ocampos
We say: Alaves 0-3 Sevilla
Alaves are in the midst of a transitional period and Abelardo needs time to reintegrate his philosophy within the team. Sevilla, on the other hand, are in top form and look more than capable of putting El Glorioso to the sword in this tie. Who knows, Youssef En-Nesyri could even bag another hat-trick.
Top betting tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 71.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 7.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 0-1 with a probability of 18.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (17.31%) and 0-3 (10.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.02%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sevilla would win this match.
