Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reggiana win with a probability of 37.42%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reggiana win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.5%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 1-0 (12.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Reggiana would win this match.