Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 36.39%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.