May 29, 2022 at 7.30pm UK at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
3 - 4
Pisa win 0-0 on penalties
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie B clash between Pisa and Monza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
We said: Pisa 2-2 Monza (Monza win 4-3 on aggregate)
The hype brought about by Monza's elevation to the top flight would add a new dimension to the old order in Serie A, and they are now set to reach the promised land after last year's setback in the semi-finals.
Having proved more potent during the regular season and playoffs, the away side can surely score at least once in Pisa, which would put them within arm's reach of promotion.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Monza had a probability of 33.39% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.