Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 45.94%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Modena had a probability of 26.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palermo would win this match.