Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 35.84%. A win for Bari had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.28%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (12.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Palermo in this match.