Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 66.87%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Mantova had a probability of 14.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Mantova win it was 0-1 (4.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.