Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 45.13%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Cittadella had a probability of 27.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.89%) and 1-2 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.91%), while for a Cittadella win it was 1-0 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.