Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Cesena had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Cesena win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Catanzaro in this match.