Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tenerife win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tenerife win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tenerife would win this match.