Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Oviedo win with a probability of 41.78%. A draw had a probability of 31.8% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 26.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Oviedo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.96%) and 2-1 (7.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.67%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.