Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 48.94%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.