Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 36.93%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.4%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (12.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malaga in this match.