Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 57.89%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 18.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (6.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.