Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Santander win with a probability of 37.06%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 31.9% and a draw had a probability of 31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Santander win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.45%) and 1-2 (7%). The likeliest Lugo win was 1-0 (13.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.