Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 56.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Edinburgh City had a probability of 20.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for a Edinburgh City win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Greenock Morton would win this match.