Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Johnstone win with a probability of 68.82%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Elgin City had a probability of 12.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Johnstone win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12%) and 1-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Elgin City win it was 1-0 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Johnstone would win this match.